Expected goal difference
Stats explained · Modeled
In plain language
Team xG for minus xG against — the run of play in one number.
Definition
A team's expected goals created minus expected goals conceded, summed over the scope. Tracks the balance of chances rather than the balance of finishing.
Modeled
An estimate from a model we built. Useful, but not a fact — every modeled stat's page says where it's weak.
What it refuses to measure
xGD does not know the score state — teams protecting leads concede chances deliberately, and it reads that as decline.
What would prove this wrong
If final-third-entries difference predicts end-of-season points as well as xGD does, the model adds nothing over territory.