Defensive action expected threat
In plain language
The threat a defensive action destroyed.
Definition
When a defensive action ends an opponent's possession, the expected threat that possession was carrying is credited to the defender. It is the destructive mirror of xT.
Modeled
An estimate from a model we built. Useful, but not a fact — every modeled stat's page says where it's weak.
How much is enough
Needs roughly 900 minutes before it separates players.
Where it is weak
Credits the player who made the final action, not the one who forced it. Rewards teams that defend deep, because possessions ended near your own goal carry more threat.
What it refuses to measure
DAxT does not measure positioning or the actions a defender prevented from ever being attempted — the best defending often produces no event at all.
What would prove this wrong
If team-level DAxT summed per season fails to correlate with goals conceded (inverted) across seasons, the credit assignment is not measuring defense.