Non-penalty expected goals
Stats explained · Modeled
In plain language
Expected goals with penalties removed.
Definition
The same model as xG, with penalty kicks excluded. Usually the more informative of the two, because penalty volume is a function of team and role rather than of the shooter.
Modeled
An estimate from a model we built. Useful, but not a fact — every modeled stat's page says where it's weak.
What would prove this wrong
Inherits the xG falsifier; additionally, if penalty conversion across a release differs from the flat penalty rate by enough to move any season leaderboard ordering, the flat-rate assumption is wrong.